Raptors vs. Clippers

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (36%) · Raptors at 67¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Raptors67¢Clippers33¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 36%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$109.51

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 66.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors67%

Clippers34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares12,897

Combined PnL+$166.39

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,577

Combined PnL-$56.87

Raptors — 36%Clippers — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Raptorsavg 65¢	$6.4K	$6.6K	+$148.53	— 7-6 (13)
nigiri99	Raptorsavg 66¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	+$12.4	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
VeryLucky888CTR	Clippersavg 33.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$35.72	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 35¢	$700	$660	-$10	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
OD Oddstorm	Raptorsavg 64.4¢	$330.33	$335.79	+$5.46	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Clippersavg 34.7¢	$188.87	$180.67	-$8.2	54% 3475-3013 (6488)
funnydayCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35¢	$70	$66	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$34	$33	-$1	54% 11661-10125 (21786)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$19.48	$19.19	-$0.1	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35.7¢	$32.99	$3.61	-$0.86	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
SU suntori<$100	Raptorsavg 67¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	44% 6439-8045 (14484)

AppleTiiime

Raptors

Invested

$6,435.9

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$148.53

Record

—

7-6 (13)

nigiri99

Raptors

Invested

$2,479

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$12.4

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

VeryLucky888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,601.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$35.72

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$700

Value

$660

PnL

-$10

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

Oddstorm

Raptors

Invested

$330.33

Value

$335.79

PnL

+$5.46

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

HerdoniaCTR

Clippers

Invested

$188.87

Value

$180.67

PnL

-$8.2

Record

54%

3475-3013 (6488)

funnydayCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$70

Value

$66

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$34

Value

$33

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

11661-10125 (21786)

sentrioCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$19.48

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$32.99

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$0.86

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

suntori<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.