Suns vs. Warriors

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (47%) · Warriors at 62¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 3

Suns39¢Warriors61¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.43

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 61.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns39%

Warriors62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$38.5K

Total Shares62,285

Combined PnL-$542.32

Suns8 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares45,711

Combined PnL+$535.89

Warriors — 47%Suns — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA Raisuu	Warriorsavg 63¢	$18.9K	$18.6K	-$300	— 7-4 (11)
Greedo	Warriorsavg 62¢	$15.0K	$9.2K	-$74.99	47% 148-168 (316)
AP AppleTiiime	Warriorsavg 63¢	$9.4K	$9.2K	-$224.99	— 7-6 (13)
nigiri99CTR	Sunsavg 37¢	$24.3K	$8.9K	+$346.56	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 37.3¢	$10.1K	$3.9K	+$120.99	54% 17504-14709 (32213)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sunsavg 37.4¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$67.43	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Warriorsavg 60.5¢	$706.99	$725.04	+$35.6	54% 404-347 (751)
BO BoomLaLa	Warriorsavg 60.1¢	$480.99	$480.21	+$15.51	54% 11661-10125 (21786)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Sunsavg 37.9¢	$454.85	$455.96	+$1.11	54% 3475-3013 (6488)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Sunsavg 37¢	$356.03	$365.65	+$9.62	51% 991-958 (1949)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$439.35	$333.16	+$5.32	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 37¢	$245.31	$251.94	+$6.63
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 63¢	$82.53	$81.22	-$1.31
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Warriorsavg 62¢	$196.83	$196.83	+$4.76	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
SE sentrioCTR	Sunsavg 38¢	$132.23	$132.23	+$1.74	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Warriorsavg 59.6¢	$127.91	$101.73	+$3.03	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 59.6¢	$54.99	$57.17	+$2.66
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 38¢	$44.58	$44.56	+$0.37
funnydayCTR<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$74	$76	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Sunsavg 43¢	$69.92	$59.35	-$10.57	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Warriorsavg 54¢	$12.86	$14.64	+$1.79	53% 8070-7281 (15351)

Raisuu

Warriors

Invested

$18,899.99

Value

$18.6K

PnL

-$300

Record

—

7-4 (11)

Greedo

Warriors

Invested

$15,000

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$74.99

Record

47%

148-168 (316)

AppleTiiime

Warriors

Invested

$9,449.99

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$224.99

Record

—

7-6 (13)

nigiri99CTR

Suns

Invested

$24,324

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$346.56

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$10,080.43

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$120.99

Record

54%

17504-14709 (32213)

6512395314597884CTR

Suns

Invested

$3,723.17

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$67.43

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Warriors

Invested

$706.99

Value

$725.04

PnL

+$35.6

Record

54%

404-347 (751)

BoomLaLa

Warriors

Invested

$480.99

Value

$480.21

PnL

+$15.51

Record

54%

11661-10125 (21786)

HerdoniaCTR

Suns

Invested

$454.85

Value

$455.96

PnL

+$1.11

Record

54%

3475-3013 (6488)

ferdinand2CTR

Suns

Invested

$356.03

Value

$365.65

PnL

+$9.62

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$439.35

Value

$333.16

PnL

+$5.32

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

Both legs:

Suns$245.3137¢+$6.63

Warriors$82.5363¢-$1.31

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Warriors

Invested

$196.83

Value

$196.83

PnL

+$4.76

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

sentrioCTR

Suns

Invested

$132.23

Value

$132.23

PnL

+$1.74

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

ghorrockARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$127.91

Value

$101.73

PnL

+$3.03

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

Both legs:

Warriors$54.9959.6¢+$2.66

Suns$44.5838¢+$0.37

funnydayCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$74

Value

$76

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

OddstormCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.92

Value

$59.35

PnL

-$10.57

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

iWasEnough<$100

Warriors

Invested

$12.86

Value

$14.64

PnL

+$1.79

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.