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Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 57% (36–27, n=63) · was PM monthly #814 · holds 5 consensus positions
0xa40a9701...dcf3fa62Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$20.0K
Record
36W / 27L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 63 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1361
Source
PM monthly #814
Trades
57
Markets
75
Volume
$927.2K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $12K · now 16¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (45% of 22)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $10K · now 40¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $6.8K · now 11¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 6¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 4¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
51 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+35 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 14% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 27% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 81% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.