Consensus PnL $75K · win rate 71% (298–122, n=420) · was PM monthly #962 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$74.6K
Record
298W / 122L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 420 settled
Batting Avg
42.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#700
Source
PM monthly #962
Trades
648
Markets
598
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $3.4K · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
Specialties
564 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 69¢- Esports
+15 pts
side won 84% of 31 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +9%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 87% of 144 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +4%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 63% of 315 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 63% of 19 at an average 77¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 46% of 83)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 61% of 197)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 90% of 279)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.