Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?

17 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 87¢ · $111K held · ended Nov 1

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$110.7K

Combined PnL

-$876.78

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$78.6K

Total Shares91,332

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares55,035

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Noavg 87¢	$47.8K	$47.0K	+$275.19	97% 36-1 (37)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$12.0K	$18.5K	+$6.5K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.1¢	$4.4K	$11.9K	+$7.5K
└ No leg	Noavg 74.6¢	$7.6K	$6.6K	$-1.0K
AN Anon455	Noavg 75.3¢	$8.3K	$9.5K	+$1.2K	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 87¢	$9.1K	$9.0K	-$103.31	65% 1754-960 (2714)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 20.7¢	$10.0K	$7.8K	$-2.2K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$128.49	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$601.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.9¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$730.06
BA BaltazarGombka	Noavg 86¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$19.77	66% 280-142 (422)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 86¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 87¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$30	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
oieshfn345	Noavg 65.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$73.28	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$946.95	$1.0K	+$68.6	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 70¢	$710	$684.82	-$25.18	56% 570-439 (1009)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Noavg 69¢	$689.99	$674.99	-$15	53% 454-406 (860)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$420	$420	-$0	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 76.9¢	$232.31	$238.01	+$5.7	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
HRTrading	Noavg 86¢	$232.11	$177.03	-$55.09	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$60.75	$156.54	+$7.01	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$131.72	$146.79	+$15.07	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 86¢	$74.87	$75.47	+$0.6	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$49.88	$49.59	-$0.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$24.99	$25.88	+$0.89
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$66.1	$62.09	-$4.01	63% 1197-693 (1890)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$105.28	$59.46	-$45.82	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$53.72	$49.21	-$4.51	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 88¢	$14.26	$13.94	-$0.08	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$9.47	$10.56	+$1.09	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 68¢	$10	$9.93	-$0.07	67% 23462-11817 (35279)

999585

Invested

$47,849.99

Value

$47.0K

PnL

+$275.19

Record

97%

36-1 (37)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$12,038.98

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Yes$4,418.4113.1¢+$7.5K

No$7,620.5774.6¢$-1.0K

Anon455

Invested

$8,309.52

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$9,061.36

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$103.31

Record

65%

1754-960 (2714)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,001.22

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$3,939.49

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$128.49

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

No$2,005.2565¢+$601.57

Yes$1,934.2424.9¢-$730.06

BaltazarGombka

Invested

$3,400

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$19.77

Record

66%

280-142 (422)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$3,179.37

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,610

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,013.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$73.28

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$946.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$68.6

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$710

Value

$684.82

PnL

-$25.18

Record

56%

570-439 (1009)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$689.99

Value

$674.99

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

454-406 (860)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$420

Value

$420

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$232.31

Value

$238.01

PnL

+$5.7

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

HRTrading

Invested

$232.11

Value

$177.03

PnL

-$55.09

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$60.75

Value

$156.54

PnL

+$7.01

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.72

Value

$146.79

PnL

+$15.07

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$74.87

Value

$75.47

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.1

Value

$62.09

PnL

-$4.01

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.28

Value

$59.46

PnL

-$45.82

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$53.72

Value

$49.21

PnL

-$4.51

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$13.94

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.47

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$1.09

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

67%

23462-11817 (35279)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.