Consensus PnL $509K · win rate 58% (19400–14000, n=33400) · PM monthly #332 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$509.4K
Record
19400W / 14000L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 33400 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1328
Source
PM monthly #332
Record (90 d)
17756/19935 · 89%
Trades
6,973,022
Markets
153,460
Volume
$118.9M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETDown $1.3K · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (82% of 41)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETDown $978 · now 100¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (84% of 39)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $737 · now 100¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (68% of 40)
Specialties
53,624 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 67¢- Soccer
+40 pts
side won 100% of 127 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +37%
- Crypto
+31 pts
side won 98% of 53494 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 91% of 2404)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 96% of 8293)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 98% of 17465)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 25462)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.