Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 49% (135–142, n=277) · was PM monthly #724 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-19.9K
Record
135W / 142L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 277 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1238
Source
PM monthly #724
Record (90 d)
128/128 · 100%
Trades
1,459
Markets
313
Volume
$1.7M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Wyoming vs. UNLVWyoming $10K · now 79¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (91% of 45)
Specialties
126 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 51¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 50 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- NBA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +52%
- NHL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 49%(won 100% of 62)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 100% of 60)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.