Consensus PnL $347K · win rate 58% (92–67, n=159) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$346.7K
Record
92W / 67L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 159 settled
Batting Avg
42.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1306
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
18,569
Markets
311
Volume
$12.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $699K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No $29K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes $4.3K · now 6¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $2.3K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
Specialties
234 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 85¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where BrightStars's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 93% of 15 at an average 95¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 23% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 14% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 50% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 96% of 195)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.