Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

15 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 94¢ · $185K held · ends Dec 1

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$184.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 94¢

+2% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 27 top traders (56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$173.1K

Total Shares184,159

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares189,313

Combined PnL$-6.3K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1775h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (18 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 61% · 18

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 91.5¢	$106.0K	$108.9K	+$2.9K	67% 751-378 (1129)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94.6¢	$23.6K	$23.5K	-$24.93	96% 631-24 (655)
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036	Noavg 94.4¢	$21.9K	$21.8K	-$102.74	82% 234-52 (286)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 95¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$52.63	89% 923-118 (1041)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 83¢	$4.2K	$4.7K	+$575	89% 563-67 (630)
BR BrightStarsCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$6.0K	$4.3K	$-1.7K	66% 190-96 (286)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$6.7K	$3.6K	$-3.1K	56% 973-770 (1743)
V1 V1nch0u	Noavg 90.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$9.25	98% 1318-31 (1349)
tja	Noavg 68¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$577.72	73% 867-323 (1190)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$100.23	65% 862-465 (1327)
StarMaster	Noavg 93.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
eCash	Noavg 85¢	$850	$940	+$95	68% 331-155 (486)
MA MaxVision	Noavg 93¢	$930	$940	+$10	37% 42-73 (115)
IN insidero	Noavg 94¢	$940	$940	+$5	76% 291-93 (384)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$492.88	$492.88	-$41.07	40% 704-1062 (1766)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$768.8	$371.5	-$423.53	38% 567-944 (1511)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$856.7	$343.26	-$513.44	64% 633-352 (985)
CunglyCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$360	$240	-$120	63% 672-398 (1070)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 88¢	$200	$213.64	+$13.64	69% 156-69 (225)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$337.23	$146.39	-$190.83	61% 839-544 (1383)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$226.25	$104.47	-$130.48	57% 1114-837 (1951)
PU PutsOnPeace<$100	Noavg 70¢	$70	$94	+$24.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR	Yesavg 12.3¢	$200.66	$92.06	-$108.6	55% 79-65 (144)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$80.51	$76.97	+$3.8	50% 357-357 (714)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$43.04	$43.16	+$0.12	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$106,025.68

Value

$108.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

thoodr

Invested

$23,650

Value

$23.5K

PnL

-$24.93

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036

Invested

$21,888.63

Value

$21.8K

PnL

-$102.74

Record

82%

234-52 (286)

Paul973973

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$52.63

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$4,150

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$575

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

BrightStarsCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,977.57

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

66%

190-96 (286)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,684.99

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

V1nch0u

Invested

$2,493.1

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$9.25

Record

98%

1318-31 (1349)

tja

Invested

$1,510.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$577.72

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,597.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$100.23

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

StarMaster

Invested

$1,402.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

eCash

Invested

$850

Value

$940

PnL

+$95

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

MaxVision

Invested

$930

Value

$940

PnL

+$10

Record

37%

42-73 (115)

insidero

Invested

$940

Value

$940

PnL

+$5

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$492.88

Value

$492.88

PnL

-$41.07

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$768.8

Value

$371.5

PnL

-$423.53

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$856.7

Value

$343.26

PnL

-$513.44

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

CunglyCTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$240

PnL

-$120

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$200

Value

$213.64

PnL

+$13.64

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$337.23

Value

$146.39

PnL

-$190.83

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.25

Value

$104.47

PnL

-$130.48

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

PutsOnPeace<$100

Invested

$70

Value

$94

PnL

+$24.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR

Yes

Invested

$200.66

Value

$92.06

PnL

-$108.6

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$80.51

Value

$76.97

PnL

+$3.8

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.04

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 27 top traders (56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1775h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (18 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 61% · 18

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.