Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $201K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$200.8K

Combined PnL

$13.4K

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 99.2¢

+7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$200.8K

Total Shares202,376

Combined PnL+$13.4K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$15.11

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$13.22

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
allenzzz	Noavg 94.4¢	$25.6K	$104.5K	+$4.8K	78% 125-36 (161)
BR BrightStars	Noavg 94.6¢	$27.6K	$28.9K	+$1.3K	66% 190-96 (286)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 94.3¢	$3.5K	$22.4K	+$1.1K	85% 605-108 (713)
03 033033033	Noavg 98.8¢	$19.2K	$19.2K	+$64.16	98% 529-9 (538)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 94.9¢	$11.2K	$11.7K	+$508.16	88% 2229-292 (2521)
Gohst	Noavg 29.8¢	$2.3K	$7.8K	+$5.4K	49% 738-770 (1508)
KR Krass	Noavg 94.2¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$158.58	74% 452-155 (607)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$13.22	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$20	$21.06	+$1.05	89% 538-64 (602)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$28.33	$15.11	-$13.22	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$14.19	$14.51	+$0.32	75% 1028-338 (1366)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$4.83	$4.97	+$0.14	59% 986-684 (1670)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$1.01	$1.05	+$0.04	61% 839-544 (1383)

allenzzz

Invested

$25,644.79

Value

$104.5K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

BrightStars

Invested

$27,567.71

Value

$28.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

66%

190-96 (286)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$3,533.29

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

033033033

Invested

$19,162.02

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$64.16

Record

98%

529-9 (538)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$11,220.47

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$508.16

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Gohst

Invested

$2,339.99

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

Krass

Invested

$3,081.33

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$158.58

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,902.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$13.22

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$1.05

Record

89%

538-64 (602)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.33

Value

$15.11

PnL

-$13.22

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$14.51

PnL

+$0.32

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.14

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.04

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.