Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 74% (416–147, n=563) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$31.9K
Record
416W / 147L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 563 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#604
Source
PM monthly #988
Trades
240
Markets
660
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $2.0K · now 19¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
483 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 67¢- Esports
+31 pts
side won 98% of 448 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 97% of 32 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 95% of 37)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 98% of 235)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 99% of 205)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.