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E8
Consensus PnL -$34K · win rate 54% (7–6, n=13) · was PM monthly #639 · holds 6 consensus positions
0xe87f99db...3b99f8e7Polymarket
🔄Contrarian
Consensus PnL
$-34.4K
Record
7W / 6L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1540
Source
PM monthly #639
Trades
30
Markets
19
Volume
$193.8K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 6 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $14K · now 3¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $11K · now 28¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (52% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $9.0K · now 16¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (45% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 11¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $492 · now 6¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $433 · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 51¢- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 67% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 75% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.