Consensus PnL $523K · win rate 57% (542–417, n=959) · was PM monthly #645 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$523.5K
Record
542W / 417L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 959 settled
Batting Avg
48.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1371
Source
PM monthly #645
Record (90 d)
289/428 · 68%
Trades
7,533
Markets
4,385
Volume
$34.5M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere $1.6K · now 79¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (62% of 39)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ANatus Vincere $297 · now 57¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Team Falcons)
Specialties
912 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+5 pts
side won 57% of 886 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 17% of 12 at an average 30¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −17%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 3% of 230)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 35% of 171)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 79% of 213)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 95% of 298)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.