Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Team Falcons — but Natus Vincere won instead.

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Resolved Natus Vincere. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Team Falcons. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 42%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$95.6K

Combined PnL

$-10.4K

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

16 of 38 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere100%

Team Falcons0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares83,566

Combined PnL$-37.3K

Natus Vincere22 traders

Total Value$64.7K

Total Shares64,713

Combined PnL+$26.9K

Team Falcons — 42%Natus Vincere — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 61.6¢	$19.3K	$20.4K	+$1.0K	54% 2550-2185 (4735)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 61.6¢	$12.5K	$20.4K	+$7.8K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 31.8¢	$6.8K	—	$-6.8K
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Falconsavg 53.7¢	$17.1K	—	$-17.1K	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 60.9¢	$7.9K	$8.3K	+$407.15	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 60.9¢	$5.0K	$8.3K	+$3.2K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 33.6¢	$2.8K	—	$-2.8K
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a	Natus Vincereavg 45¢	$11.7K	$9.2K	+$2.6K	48% 315-345 (660)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Natus Vincereavg 56.9¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$4.5K	43% 346-461 (807)
TR TrippleEX	Natus Vincereavg 49.3¢	$9.1K	$9.1K	+$4.6K	58% 306-220 (526)
FK fkALCTR	Team Falconsavg 48.5¢	$8.2K	—	$-8.2K	63% 2047-1221 (3268)
SH shaw	Natus Vincereavg 46.7¢	$2.8K	$5.9K	+$3.2K	53% 2186-1966 (4152)
PO PourpelNourpel	Natus Vincereavg 51¢	$2.5K	$4.7K	+$1.2K	54% 624-532 (1156)
WE weeeskies	Natus Vincereavg 46.5¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$2.3K	53% 690-609 (1299)
YI yishiwucheng	Natus Vincereavg 51.4¢	$2.2K	$4.1K	+$1.9K	51% 1851-1781 (3632)
RA Rayaya	Natus Vincereavg 48¢	$1.9K	$4.0K	+$2.1K	60% 1188-785 (1973)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 37.3¢	$5.1K	$1.0K	$-1.8K	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 37.3¢	$1.6K	—	$-2.2K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 65¢	$667.54	$1.0K	+$359.44
IV Ivan948CTR	Team Falconsavg 29.4¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	42% 82-112 (194)
Tolkonevminus3	Natus Vincereavg 69.7¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$857.08	57% 74-55 (129)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	53% 85-75 (160)
forsenxdCTR	Team Falconsavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	53% 1079-944 (2023)
DamwonChampions2026	Natus Vincereavg 58.3¢	$1.4K	$2.5K	+$1.0K	53% 2076-1836 (3912)
minji	Natus Vincereavg 64.4¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$827.57	52% 1802-1664 (3466)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Team Falconsavg 33.9¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	43% 106-142 (248)
0xheavy888	Natus Vincereavg 67¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$676.82	56% 7461-5982 (13443)
A8 a8999CTR	Team Falconsavg 54¢	$3.8K	—	$-2.1K	44% 1111-1410 (2521)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$109.68	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢	$660.59	$1.1K	+$468.03
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 28.9¢	$358.35	—	-$358.35
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	Team Falconsavg 23¢	$3.3K	—	-$760.22	41% 289-423 (712)
HU hurrican	Natus Vincereavg 74.7¢	$1,000	$1.3K	+$338.17	71% 1023-417 (1440)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$19,315.48

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

2550-2185 (4735)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$12,535.1761.6¢+$7.8K

Team Falcons$6,780.3131.8¢$-6.8K

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$17,056.76

Value

—

PnL

$-17.1K

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,851.31

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$407.15

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$5,025.9260.9¢+$3.2K

Team Falcons$2,825.3933.6¢$-2.8K

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

Natus Vincere

Invested

$11,679.33

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

48%

315-345 (660)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Natus Vincere

Invested

$10,548.09

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

43%

346-461 (807)

TrippleEX

Natus Vincere

Invested

$9,140.63

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

58%

306-220 (526)

fkALCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,225.03

Value

—

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

63%

2047-1221 (3268)

shaw

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,777.95

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

53%

2186-1966 (4152)

PourpelNourpel

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,466.35

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

624-532 (1156)

weeeskies

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,299.98

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

690-609 (1299)

yishiwucheng

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,195.58

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

51%

1851-1781 (3632)

Rayaya

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,920

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

60%

1188-785 (1973)

calculate10ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$5,086.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$1,578.4537.3¢$-2.2K

Natus Vincere$667.5465¢+$359.44

Ivan948CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,875.32

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

42%

82-112 (194)

Tolkonevminus3

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,971.41

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$857.08

Record

57%

74-55 (129)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,666.5

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

forsenxdCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,667.64

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

1079-944 (2023)

DamwonChampions2026

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,443.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

2076-1836 (3912)

minji

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,495.75

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$827.57

Record

52%

1802-1664 (3466)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,720.97

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

43%

106-142 (248)

0xheavy888

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,050.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$676.82

Record

56%

7461-5982 (13443)

a8999CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,828.37

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

44%

1111-1410 (2521)

NotJumpARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,018.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$109.68

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$660.5958.5¢+$468.03

Team Falcons$358.3528.9¢-$358.35

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,300

Value

—

PnL

-$760.22

Record

41%

289-423 (712)

hurrican

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$338.17

Record

71%

1023-417 (1440)

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

16 of 38 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8b13ce2c...40f156

Slug

cs2-navi-fal2-2026-11-02-game1

Traders in this Market

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Arbitrage — excluded

omnibus-076daa

Team Falcons — $0

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$407.15

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

Natus Vincere — $9.2K

+$2.6K

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Natus Vincere — $10.5K

+$4.5K

TrippleEX

Natus Vincere — $9.1K

+$4.6K

fkAL

CTR

Team Falcons — $0

$-8.2K

shaw

Natus Vincere — $5.9K

+$3.2K

PourpelNourpel

Natus Vincere — $4.7K

+$1.2K

weeeskies

Natus Vincere — $4.3K

+$2.3K

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