Back to Traders
FB
Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 33% (94–194, n=288) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 2 consensus positions
0xfbcbd30e...49eebb5dPolymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$12.3K
Record
94W / 194L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 288 settled
Batting Avg
51.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2174
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
3,937
Markets
651
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $496 · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Yes $396 · now 51¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
252 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 79¢- Mentions
+10 pts
side won 89% of 252 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 19% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 89% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 93% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 100% of 197)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.