Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.0K
$730.9
30.4¢ → 51¢
+68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtrips | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.3K | $2.2K | +$671.99 | 38% 600-989 (1589) |
EL ElonSimp | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $772.82 | $388.16 | +$88.42 | 34% 210-407 (617) |
 Kamenshyk22 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $180.99 | $252.57 | +$71.58 | 20% 387-1556 (1943) |
BI bipbipbopCTR | Noavg 63.5¢ | $1.8K | $197.93 | -$100.21 | 64% 2397-1323 (3720) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $9.55 | $8.68 | -$0.87 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$1,293.08
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$671.99
Record
38%
600-989 (1589)
Invested
$772.82
Value
$388.16
PnL
+$88.42
Record
34%
210-407 (617)
Kamenshyk22Invested
$180.99
Value
$252.57
PnL
+$71.58
Record
20%
387-1556 (1943)
Invested
$1,787.53
Value
$197.93
PnL
-$100.21
Record
64%
2397-1323 (3720)
Invested
$9.55
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0.87
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.