Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$298.82

Smart Money Entry

7.8¢ → 5.5¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$581.92

Total Shares8,597

Combined PnL+$288.52

No2 traders

Total Value$525.13

Total Shares556

Combined PnL+$10.3

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XZ xzsaCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$50.89	$463.99	+$259.66	13% 4-27 (31)
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 88.4¢	$3.9K	$336.75	-$1.77	34% 210-407 (617)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 87.2¢	$176.31	$188.38	+$12.07	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
DD dddtripsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$68.03	$87.53	+$19.5	38% 600-989 (1589)
BI bipbipbopCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$321.15	$30.4	+$9.36	64% 2397-1323 (3720)

xzsaCTR

Yes

Invested

$50.89

Value

$463.99

PnL

+$259.66

Record

13%

4-27 (31)

ElonSimp

Invested

$3,943.28

Value

$336.75

PnL

-$1.77

Record

34%

210-407 (617)

ghorrock

Invested

$176.31

Value

$188.38

PnL

+$12.07

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

dddtripsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.03

Value

$87.53

PnL

+$19.5

Record

38%

600-989 (1589)

bipbipbopCTR

Yes

Invested

$321.15

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$9.36

Record

64%

2397-1323 (3720)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.