Consensus PnL $80K · win rate 41% (1499–2133, n=3632) · PM monthly #695 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$79.7K
Record
1499W / 2133L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 3632 settled
Batting Avg
39.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1472
Source
PM monthly #695
Record (90 d)
96/169 · 57%
Trades
3,198
Markets
4,917
Volume
$27.4M
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Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 15 on the consensus side (87%)- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?No $6.7K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Trail Blazers vs. LakersTrail Blazers $451 · now 19¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Lakers)
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $68 · now 20¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $55 · now 18¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $38 · now 13¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $38 · now 13¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $30 · now 10¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes $21 · now 7¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
Specialties
3,214 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 47¢- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 80% of 79 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +5%
- MLB
+3 pts
side won 67% of 15 · avg entry 64¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 44% of 16 at an average 68¢ entry (−24 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 9% of 1109)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 39% of 472)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 59% of 742)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 92% of 891)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.