Consensus PnL -$112K · win rate 47% (55–63, n=118) · was PM monthly #904 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-111.8K
Record
55W / 63L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 118 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2130
Source
PM monthly #904
Record (90 d)
53/54 · 98%
Trades
146
Markets
127
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ANatus Vincere $9.9K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (FURIA)
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BG2 $4.5K · now 40¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Aurora Gaming)
- Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BTYLOO $1.5K · now 61¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (39% of 54)
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic $185 · now 51¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 $129 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
Specialties
54 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+50 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +46%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 92% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 100% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.