Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Natus Vincere, while the market favors FURIA (100%). 49 of 117 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

49 of 117 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (42%) · Natus Vincere at 0.1¢ · $1.1M held · ends Nov 3

FURIA>99¢Natus Vincere<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

117

Natus Vincere 42%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1M

Combined PnL

$31.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 49 traders

Research grade

AvoidNatus Vincere at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

49 of 117 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 100%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed49 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA100%

Natus Vincere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere49 traders

Total Value$752.2K

Total Shares967,318

Combined PnL+$107.5K

FURIA68 traders

Total Value$340.5K

Total Shares697,593

Combined PnL$-76.3K

Natus Vincere — 42%FURIA — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

41 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (79 on Natus Vincere) disagree here.

whaleFURIA 67% · 9

Diverging

sharpFURIA 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperFURIA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 52% · 66

Aligned

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 52% · 79

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	Natus Vincereavg 52.3¢	$158.0K	$215.9K	+$57.9K	43% 91-122 (213)
NS NS13CTR	Natus Vincereavg 59.3¢	$140.0K	$134.3K	+$26.8K	52% 420-390 (810)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Natus Vincereavg 52.5¢	$120.9K	$118.1K	+$2.1K	54% 2576-2203 (4779)
LO lonmi2511	FURIAavg 54.8¢	$87.7K	$46.8K	$-24.1K	54% 1259-1052 (2311)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 64.5¢	$47.4K	$41.8K	$-5.6K	50% 1874-1852 (3726)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 64.5¢	$27.0K	$29.3K	+$2.3K
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 48.8¢	$20.4K	$12.5K	$-7.9K
KK KkunnCTR	Natus Vincereavg 53.2¢	$26.1K	$34.4K	+$8.3K	43% 245-326 (571)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Natus Vincereavg 49.4¢	$20.5K	$29.1K	+$8.6K	54% 330-285 (615)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Natus Vincereavg 55.5¢	$28.7K	$29.0K	+$241.74	52% 14106-12878 (26984)
LA landighertz	FURIAavg 99.9¢	$24.9K	$24.9K	+$12.44	99% 1167-7 (1174)
CORGIICTR	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$15.0K	$22.5K	+$7.5K	40% 401-592 (993)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	FURIAavg 97.2¢	$21.9K	$22.4K	+$509.4	97% 3489-124 (3613)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 68.7¢	$41.6K	$21.2K	$-20.4K	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
0xheavy888	FURIAavg 54.8¢	$22.1K	$21.2K	+$1.6K	56% 7582-6076 (13658)
UN Uniform123CTR	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$20.4K	$21.0K	+$750	49% 251-260 (511)
DamwonChampions2026	FURIAavg 57.2¢	$18.1K	$18.8K	+$3.3K	53% 2093-1866 (3959)
3648393489047CTR	Natus Vincereavg 57.1¢	$19.5K	$17.6K	$-1.9K	61% 1152-725 (1877)
saintaphextwinCTR	Natus Vincereavg 50.9¢	$11.9K	$16.3K	+$4.5K	38% 401-652 (1053)
DS dsasdaas	FURIAavg 57.2¢	$24.6K	$15.7K	+$6.0K	63% 294-171 (465)
minji	FURIAavg 54.4¢	$17.9K	$15.3K	+$852.41	52% 1823-1687 (3510)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$9.9K	$15.0K	-$106.68	45% 56-68 (124)
c4acap	FURIAavg 99.9¢	$14.4K	$14.4K	+$7.21	98% 2459-42 (2501)
WI Wiretransferxyz	FURIAavg 53¢	$22.3K	$12.4K	$-9.9K	53% 769-683 (1452)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	FURIAavg 53¢	$22.6K	$12.1K	$-10.4K	50% 7376-7501 (14877)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	FURIAavg 54¢	$19.4K	$12.0K	$-7.4K	50% 510-508 (1018)
drainedandpoor	FURIAavg 53¢	$21.2K	$11.4K	$-9.8K	49% 633-671 (1304)

fantasy7788CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$157,999.43

Value

$215.9K

PnL

+$57.9K

Record

43%

91-122 (213)

NS13CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$139,972.8

Value

$134.3K

PnL

+$26.8K

Record

52%

420-390 (810)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$120,858.53

Value

$118.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

54%

2576-2203 (4779)

lonmi2511

FURIA

Invested

$87,667.97

Value

$46.8K

PnL

$-24.1K

Record

54%

1259-1052 (2311)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$47,378.33

Value

$41.8K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

50%

1874-1852 (3726)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$26,960.2964.5¢+$2.3K

FURIA$20,418.0448.8¢$-7.9K

KkunnCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$26,119.59

Value

$34.4K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

43%

245-326 (571)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,518.77

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

54%

330-285 (615)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$28,713.55

Value

$29.0K

PnL

+$241.74

Record

52%

14106-12878 (26984)

landighertz

FURIA

Invested

$24,863.84

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$12.44

Record

99%

1167-7 (1174)

CORGIICTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,987.36

Value

$22.5K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

40%

401-592 (993)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

FURIA

Invested

$21,937.74

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$509.4

Record

97%

3489-124 (3613)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$41,588.63

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-20.4K

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

0xheavy888

FURIA

Invested

$22,124.07

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

56%

7582-6076 (13658)

Uniform123CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,399.99

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$750

Record

49%

251-260 (511)

DamwonChampions2026

FURIA

Invested

$18,072.43

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

53%

2093-1866 (3959)

3648393489047CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$19,504.45

Value

$17.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

61%

1152-725 (1877)

saintaphextwinCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$11,865.9

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

38%

401-652 (1053)

dsasdaas

FURIA

Invested

$24,577.77

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

63%

294-171 (465)

minji

FURIA

Invested

$17,860.25

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$852.41

Record

52%

1823-1687 (3510)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$9,884.62

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$106.68

Record

45%

56-68 (124)

c4acap

FURIA

Invested

$14,395.98

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$7.21

Record

98%

2459-42 (2501)

Wiretransferxyz

FURIA

Invested

$22,311.35

Value

$12.4K

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

53%

769-683 (1452)

jakepaulthegoat2008

FURIA

Invested

$22,577.04

Value

$12.1K

PnL

$-10.4K

Record

50%

7376-7501 (14877)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

FURIA

Invested

$19,400

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

50%

510-508 (1018)

drainedandpoor

FURIA

Invested

$21,200

Value

$11.4K

PnL

$-9.8K

Record

49%

633-671 (1304)

Research grade

AvoidNatus Vincere at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

49 of 117 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 100%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed49 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

41 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (79 on Natus Vincere) disagree here.

whaleFURIA 67% · 9

Diverging

sharpFURIA 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperFURIA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 52% · 66

Aligned

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 52% · 79

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.