Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

17 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (63%) · Aurora Gaming at 56¢ · $154K held · ends Nov 3

Aurora Gaming56¢G244¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 63%

Total Value

$154.2K

Combined PnL

$431.43

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

17 of 27 top traders (63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Gaming56%

G244%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Gaming17 traders

Total Value$83.2K

Total Shares147,866

Combined PnL+$401.27

G210 traders

Total Value$71.0K

Total Shares161,730

Combined PnL+$30.16

Aurora Gaming — 63%G2 — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$35.0K	$35.3K	+$312.17	50% 7355-7474 (14829)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	G2avg 43.7¢	$34.9K	$35.2K	+$241.41	56% 207-160 (367)
drainedandpoor	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$22.4K	$22.6K	+$200	48% 626-667 (1293)
CORGIICTR	G2avg 44¢	$18.4K	$18.4K	-$209.44	41% 398-578 (976)
relativesignificanceCTR	G2avg 44.5¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$156.84	56% 126-98 (224)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	G2avg 43¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$71.45	47% 54-62 (116)
Nooserac	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$50	52% 5896-5491 (11387)
TR TrippleEX	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$50	58% 310-220 (530)
Satanishippie	Aurora Gamingavg 57.4¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$46.06	48% 326-353 (679)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Aurora Gamingavg 59¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$84.74	50% 365-358 (723)
TH TheVeteran77CTR	G2avg 41.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$122.85	48% 244-266 (510)
RA Rayaya	Aurora Gamingavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$139.98	60% 1192-785 (1977)
NO nobody2somebody	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$52.5	52% 644-601 (1245)
VeryLucky888	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	+$53.65	58% 43710-31800 (75510)
saintaphextwin	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$36.03	39% 397-632 (1029)
NO Noha13CTR	G2avg 45¢	$990	$957	-$33	52% 44-40 (84)
forsenxd	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$838.57	$861.44	+$22.87	53% 1080-947 (2027)
HL HLEbritniCTR	G2avg 44¢	$660	$652.5	-$7.5	57% 13-10 (23)
CR Crazyboy77	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$559.99	$564.99	+$5	52% 189-176 (365)
OJ ojgtubvdt	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$300	$289.47	-$10.53	62% 651-397 (1048)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	G2avg 44¢	$175.99	$173.99	-$2	51% 1601-1545 (3146)
GH ghorrockCTR	G2avg 42.8¢	$202.37	$170.81	+$3.8	57% 17433-13012 (30445)
OM omnibus-076daa	Aurora Gamingavg 56.2¢	$120.34	$121.03	+$0.69	50% 19865-20212 (40077)
SU suntori	Aurora Gamingavg 56.9¢	$117.04	$116.1	-$0.94	45% 13087-15871 (28958)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$67.61	$68.22	+$0.6	65% 1815-991 (2806)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$34,962.82

Value

$35.3K

PnL

+$312.17

Record

50%

7355-7474 (14829)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Invested

$34,920.12

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$241.41

Record

56%

207-160 (367)

drainedandpoor

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$22,400

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

48%

626-667 (1293)

CORGIICTR

Invested

$18,430.72

Value

$18.4K

PnL

-$209.44

Record

41%

398-578 (976)

relativesignificanceCTR

Invested

$7,112.51

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$156.84

Record

56%

126-98 (224)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Invested

$6,145.08

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$71.45

Record

47%

54-62 (116)

Nooserac

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$5,600

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

52%

5896-5491 (11387)

TrippleEX

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$5,700

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

310-220 (530)

Satanishippie

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$46.06

Record

48%

326-353 (679)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,499.93

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$84.74

Record

50%

365-358 (723)

TheVeteran77CTR

Invested

$2,070.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$122.85

Record

48%

244-266 (510)

Rayaya

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,399.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$139.98

Record

60%

1192-785 (1977)

nobody2somebody

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,924.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

52%

644-601 (1245)

VeryLucky888

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,865.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$53.65

Record

58%

43710-31800 (75510)

saintaphextwin

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,321.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$36.03

Record

39%

397-632 (1029)

Noha13CTR

Invested

$990

Value

$957

PnL

-$33

Record

52%

44-40 (84)

forsenxd

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$838.57

Value

$861.44

PnL

+$22.87

Record

53%

1080-947 (2027)

HLEbritniCTR

Invested

$660

Value

$652.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

Crazyboy77

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$559.99

Value

$564.99

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

189-176 (365)

ojgtubvdt

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$300

Value

$289.47

PnL

-$10.53

Record

62%

651-397 (1048)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$175.99

Value

$173.99

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1601-1545 (3146)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$202.37

Value

$170.81

PnL

+$3.8

Record

57%

17433-13012 (30445)

omnibus-076daa

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$120.34

Value

$121.03

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

19865-20212 (40077)

suntori

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$117.04

Value

$116.1

PnL

-$0.94

Record

45%

13087-15871 (28958)

darkumbreon88<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$67.61

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$0.6

Record

65%

1815-991 (2806)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

17 of 27 top traders (63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.