Consensus PnL $9.8K · win rate 44% (229–293, n=522) · PM monthly #977 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$9.8K
Record
229W / 293L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 522 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1999
Source
PM monthly #977
Trades
133
Markets
539
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?Yes $72 · now 49¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
376 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 44¢- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 64% of 346 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 5% of 21 at an average 20¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 21% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 63% of 146)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 70% of 174)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.