Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$267.17
72.2¢ → 51¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
436h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.53 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.5¢ | $1.1K | $967.44 | -$180.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $74.05 | $264.9 | +$190.85 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $342.87 | $586.36 | +$243.49 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 71¢ | $145.45 | $355.36 | -$117.45 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 85¢ | $276.98 | $252.25 | -$24.73 | 54% 4944-4172 (9116) |
RE retarb | Noavg 61.1¢ | $130.55 | $207.57 | +$77.01 | 48% 4253-4548 (8801) |
 poshposh | Noavg 69.9¢ | $21.5 | $203.9 | +$47.85 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
FI FinalOrderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $50 | $72.06 | +$22.06 | 46% 225-260 (485) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $40.96 | $59.9 | +$18.94 | 54% 6435-5416 (11851) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,221.82
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.53
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$342.87
Value
$586.36
PnL
+$243.49
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$145.45
Value
$355.36
PnL
-$117.45
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$276.98
Value
$252.25
PnL
-$24.73
Record
54%
4944-4172 (9116)
Invested
$130.55
Value
$207.57
PnL
+$77.01
Record
48%
4253-4548 (8801)
poshposhInvested
$21.5
Value
$203.9
PnL
+$47.85
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$50
Value
$72.06
PnL
+$22.06
Record
46%
225-260 (485)
Invested
$40.96
Value
$59.9
PnL
+$18.94
Record
54%
6435-5416 (11851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.