Consensus PnL $326K · win rate 73% (268–97, n=365) · was PM monthly #607 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$326.1K
Record
268W / 97L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 365 settled
Batting Avg
47.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#483
Source
PM monthly #607
Record (90 d)
473/550 · 86%
Trades
40,936
Markets
2,268
Volume
$5.9M
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs maybe - Map 1 Winnermaybe $486 · now 100¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Honvéd - Map 2 WinnerHonvéd $126 · now 93¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs maybe (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #10 Group CWRAITH PCIFIC $99 · now 99¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (90% of 12)
- Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs maybe - Map 2 WinnerWRAITH PCIFIC $75 · now 100¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (73% of 13)
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winnermegoshort $71 · now 0¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Honvéd)
- Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs Damajuana - Map 2 WinnerMEIA NOITE $55 · now 100¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Damajuana)
- Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs Damajuana - Map 1 WinnerMEIA NOITE $50 · now 100¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Saint Sinners - Map 2 WinnerDrama eSports $36 · now 100¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
410 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 74¢- Esports
+16 pts
side won 90% of 410 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 18% of 45)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 86% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 96% of 54)
- 70¢ and up: 72%(won 100% of 297)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.