Consensus PnL $160K · win rate 52% (759–695, n=1454) · PM monthly #233 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$160.1K
Record
759W / 695L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1454 settled
Batting Avg
85.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1618
Source
PM monthly #233 + pinned
Trades
21,336
Markets
2,036
Volume
$9.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit $17K · now 53¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (33% of 71)
Specialties
1,214 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+31 pts
side won 86% of 1196 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +30%
- Soccer
+20 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 54% of 50)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 79% of 383)
- 50–70¢: 51%(won 90% of 622)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 94% of 159)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.