Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

32 of 68 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (47%) · Team Spirit at 94¢ · $621K held · ends Nov 1

Team Yandex7¢Team Spirit93¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 47%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$621.3K

Combined PnL

$86.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 93.5¢

+72% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

32 of 68 top traders (47%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed36 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex7%

Team Spirit94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit32 traders

Total Value$472.4K

Total Shares533,437

Combined PnL+$144.7K

Team Yandex36 traders

Total Value$41.3K

Total Shares231,142

Combined PnL$-58.7K

Team Spirit — 47%Team Yandex — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 22%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 22% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpTeam Spirit 53% · 17

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 52

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 52% · 64

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 46¢	$27.6K	$49.8K	+$32.0K	54% 1091-934 (2025)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 54.7¢	$47.5K	$47.0K	-$441.35	53% 532-465 (997)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 50¢	$25.6K	$40.4K	+$15.6K	58% 907-653 (1560)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Spiritavg 50.2¢	$24.1K	$37.9K	+$14.5K	57% 726-555 (1281)
Medo3DARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 45.5¢	$27.4K	$34.8K	$-5.4K	40% 173-258 (431)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 33.7¢	$11.8K	$24.2K	-$414.66
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 45.5¢	$15.6K	$10.6K	$-5.0K
CyberScore.live	Team Spiritavg 32.4¢	$15.0K	$30.9K	+$24.8K	46% 408-480 (888)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 72.2¢	$38.9K	$30.2K	$-8.7K	69% 502-221 (723)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 72.2¢	$20.0K	$17.9K	$-2.1K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 54.3¢	$18.9K	$12.3K	$-6.5K
relativesignificance	Team Spiritavg 47.7¢	$16.2K	$26.8K	+$10.6K	56% 115-90 (205)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616	Team Spiritavg 43¢	$13.6K	$25.1K	+$11.4K	49% 1163-1218 (2381)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Spiritavg 65.1¢	$70.4K	$19.7K	+$3.9K	68% 87-41 (128)
Sunshine.Smile	Team Spiritavg 47.3¢	$11.6K	$19.4K	+$8.1K	58% 1866-1351 (3217)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Team Spiritavg 69.6¢	$29.0K	$19.2K	$-4.8K	56% 166-133 (299)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 75.6¢	$24.6K	$17.7K	+$6.3K	64% 313-177 (490)
Skritopoolniy	Team Spiritavg 45.6¢	$10.2K	$15.4K	$-3.1K	48% 609-650 (1259)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 45.7¢	$17.1K	$15.4K	+$5.7K	71% 166-69 (235)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 93.5¢	$19.7K	$14.9K	+$294.33	78% 40-11 (51)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 48¢	$15.5K	$14.0K	$-1.3K	49% 810-856 (1666)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 47.9¢	$6.0K	$9.8K	+$4.1K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 48¢	$9.5K	$4.2K	$-5.4K
ST StakesForFun	Team Spiritavg 81.5¢	$44.8K	$13.6K	+$1.2K	64% 390-219 (609)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 85.5¢	$13.7K	$11.7K	$-2.0K	65% 1739-932 (2671)
cat3xcat3x	Team Spiritavg 67.8¢	$20.9K	$10.8K	+$140.97	56% 336-266 (602)
errormargin3	Team Spiritavg 66.8¢	$17.8K	$9.9K	+$3.7K	54% 247-214 (461)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 60.6¢	$12.0K	$9.4K	-$433	69% 304-134 (438)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 60.6¢	$6.7K	$7.1K	+$434.78
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 56.7¢	$3.5K	$2.2K	-$867.77
Tolkonevminus2	Team Spiritavg 68.3¢	$24.4K	$7.9K	+$876.24	60% 76-51 (127)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	Team Yandexavg 40¢	$11.5K	$7.9K	-$384.67	54% 50-43 (93)
dodsterbotARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 51¢	$12.6K	$7.4K	$-2.6K	46% 635-744 (1379)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 45.4¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$1.8K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 51¢	$7.6K	$3.1K	$-4.4K

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$27,617.47

Value

$49.8K

PnL

+$32.0K

Record

54%

1091-934 (2025)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$47,489.45

Value

$47.0K

PnL

-$441.35

Record

53%

532-465 (997)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$25,569.88

Value

$40.4K

PnL

+$15.6K

Record

58%

907-653 (1560)

Sisyphus-

Team Spirit

Invested

$24,112

Value

$37.9K

PnL

+$14.5K

Record

57%

726-555 (1281)

Medo3DARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$27,389.39

Value

$34.8K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

40%

173-258 (431)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$11,808.4333.7¢-$414.66

Team Spirit$15,580.9745.5¢$-5.0K

CyberScore.live

Team Spirit

Invested

$14,999.91

Value

$30.9K

PnL

+$24.8K

Record

46%

408-480 (888)

gxxyyARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$38,897.83

Value

$30.2K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

69%

502-221 (723)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$20,046.9272.2¢$-2.1K

Team Yandex$18,850.9154.3¢$-6.5K

relativesignificance

Team Spirit

Invested

$16,156.83

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$10.6K

Record

56%

115-90 (205)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,649.59

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$11.4K

Record

49%

1163-1218 (2381)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Spirit

Invested

$70,353.57

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

68%

87-41 (128)

Sunshine.Smile

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,592.91

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

58%

1866-1351 (3217)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$29,038.91

Value

$19.2K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

56%

166-133 (299)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$24,593.36

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

64%

313-177 (490)

Skritopoolniy

Team Spirit

Invested

$10,240.56

Value

$15.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

48%

609-650 (1259)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$17,141.49

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

71%

166-69 (235)

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$19,743.35

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$294.33

Record

78%

40-11 (51)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$15,512.02

Value

$14.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

810-856 (1666)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$5,966.7647.9¢+$4.1K

Team Yandex$9,545.2648¢$-5.4K

StakesForFun

Team Spirit

Invested

$44,845.08

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

64%

390-219 (609)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,704.73

Value

$11.7K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

65%

1739-932 (2671)

cat3xcat3x

Team Spirit

Invested

$20,902.97

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$140.97

Record

56%

336-266 (602)

errormargin3

Team Spirit

Invested

$17,755.73

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

54%

247-214 (461)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,954.57

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$433

Record

69%

304-134 (438)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$6,70960.6¢+$434.78

Team Yandex$3,543.8256.7¢-$867.77

Tolkonevminus2

Team Spirit

Invested

$24,412.03

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$876.24

Record

60%

76-51 (127)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$11,516.68

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$384.67

Record

54%

50-43 (93)

dodsterbotARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$12,643.47

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

46%

635-744 (1379)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$2,441.2345.4¢+$1.8K

Team Yandex$7,649.9751¢$-4.4K

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

32 of 68 top traders (47%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed36 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 22%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 22% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpTeam Spirit 53% · 17

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 52

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 52% · 64

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.