Consensus PnL -$6.6K · win rate 50% (623–623, n=1246) · was PM monthly #881 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-6.6K
Record
623W / 623L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1246 settled
Batting Avg
80.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1185
Source
PM monthly #881
Record (90 d)
93/155 · 60%
Trades
3,152
Markets
1,290
Volume
$617.8K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Lima: Ryo Tabata vs Johan NiklesJohan Nikles $175 · now 17¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Ryo Tabata)
Specialties
878 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 65% of 213 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +6%
- College Basketball
+10 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 54¢
ROI −6%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 44% of 321 at an average 46¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 18% of 157)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 37% of 252)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 59% of 254)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 80% of 215)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.