Lima: Ryo Tabata vs Johan Nikles

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ryo Tabata (56%) · Ryo Tabata at 68¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16

Ryo Tabata68¢Johan Nikles32¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryo Tabata

Consensus Traders

Ryo Tabata 56%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$65.46

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 67.5¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

5 of 9 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ryo Tabata68%

Johan Nikles33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryo Tabata5 traders

Total Value$800.14

Total Shares1,168

Combined PnL+$131.23

Johan Nikles4 traders

Total Value$261.67

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$65.77

Ryo Tabata — 56%Johan Nikles — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 54.9¢	$16.0K	$18.6K	+$2.6K	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 54.9¢	$11.2K	$13.2K	+$2.0K
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 31.3¢	$4.8K	$5.4K	+$633.75
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Johan Niklesavg 30.9¢	$674.46	$2.8K	+$2.3K	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabata	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$2.4K
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 30.9¢	$674.46	$621.7	-$52.77
38 38791873984189	Ryo Tabataavg 57.8¢	$306.27	$398.45	+$92.19	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8	Ryo Tabataavg 56.2¢	$299.79	$330.51	+$30.72	43% 304-407 (711)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 80¢	$703.07	$233.29	-$92.71	58% 237-173 (410)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 80¢	$160	$161	+$1
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 41¢	$151.83	$72.29	-$93.71
JO JoeytheRealCTR	Johan Niklesavg 31¢	$204.63	$175.17	-$29.46	48% 466-505 (971)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 53.5¢	$156.3	$169.28	+$12.98	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 53.5¢	$97.34	$133.77	+$36.43
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 44¢	$58.96	$35.51	-$23.45
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 74¢	$152.19	$144.45	-$7.74	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 74¢	$96.7	$93.43	-$3.27
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 31¢	$55.49	$51.01	-$4.48
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 63.6¢	$127.71	$113.81	-$13.9	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 63.6¢	$66.96	$75.34	+$8.37
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 45¢	$60.75	$38.47	-$22.28
machinelearnedARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 61¢	$61.09	$62.96	+$1.87	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 61¢	$36.6	$42.9	+$6.3
└ Johan Nikles leg	Johan Niklesavg 34.8¢	$24.49	$20.06	-$4.43
PA pauleta23<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 62.8¢	$44.11	$45.31	+$1.2	65% 25766-13860 (39626)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 44.7¢	$49.71	$32.5	-$11.07	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 50.2¢	$46.56	$30.36	-$16.2	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Johan Niklesavg 48.2¢	$32.68	$23.64	-$9.04	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
VE Venusian<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 39¢	$25	$17	+$7.25	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 34¢	$9	$8.87	-$0.13	46% 31018-36480 (67498)

RN1ARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$15,966.74

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$11,208.0454.9¢+$2.0K

Johan Nikles$4,758.731.3¢+$633.75

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$674.46

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$2,220.82—+$2.4K

Johan Nikles$674.4630.9¢-$52.77

38791873984189

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$306.27

Value

$398.45

PnL

+$92.19

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$299.79

Value

$330.51

PnL

+$30.72

Record

43%

304-407 (711)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$703.07

Value

$233.29

PnL

-$92.71

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$16080¢+$1

Johan Nikles$151.8341¢-$93.71

JoeytheRealCTR

Johan Nikles

Invested

$204.63

Value

$175.17

PnL

-$29.46

Record

48%

466-505 (971)

EulhunterARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$156.3

Value

$169.28

PnL

+$12.98

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$97.3453.5¢+$36.43

Johan Nikles$58.9644¢-$23.45

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$152.19

Value

$144.45

PnL

-$7.74

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$96.774¢-$3.27

Johan Nikles$55.4931¢-$4.48

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$127.71

Value

$113.81

PnL

-$13.9

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$66.9663.6¢+$8.37

Johan Nikles$60.7545¢-$22.28

machinelearnedARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$61.09

Value

$62.96

PnL

+$1.87

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$36.661¢+$6.3

Johan Nikles$24.4934.8¢-$4.43

pauleta23<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$44.11

Value

$45.31

PnL

+$1.2

Record

65%

25766-13860 (39626)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$49.71

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$11.07

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$46.56

Value

$30.36

PnL

-$16.2

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

LimousinCTR<$100

Johan Nikles

Invested

$32.68

Value

$23.64

PnL

-$9.04

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

Venusian<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$25

Value

$17

PnL

+$7.25

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

LuckyLoo<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

31018-36480 (67498)

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

5 of 9 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryo Tabata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.