Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 38% (198–317, n=515) · PM monthly #924 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.0K
Record
198W / 317L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 515 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2124
Source
PM monthly #924
Trades
103
Markets
547
Volume
$342.3K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.2K · now 45¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 16¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 13¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
213 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 42¢- Esports
+55 pts
side won 95% of 149 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +47%
- Crypto
+52 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +54%
- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 90% of 67)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 96% of 75)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 97% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 34)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.