Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 22 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?

22 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 43¢ · $287K held · ended Nov 1

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 61%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$286.5K

Combined PnL

$24.8K

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 42.5¢

+4% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 36 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$162.6K

Total Shares297,053

Combined PnL+$33.9K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$69.2K

Total Shares120,411

Combined PnL$-9.2K

No — 61%Yes — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 34¢	$38.2K	$70.3K	+$32.1K	49% 167-174 (341)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 66¢	$39.5K	$39.5K	+$23.68	65% 1754-960 (2714)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 53.2¢	$42.2K	$34.7K	$-7.4K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$26.9K	$29.5K	+$2.6K	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.2¢	$15.7K	$20.9K	+$5.2K
└ No leg	Noavg 55.5¢	$11.2K	$8.6K	$-2.6K
xfileCTR	Noavg 35¢	$10.2K	$18.4K	+$8.2K	41% 473-673 (1146)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$12.2K	$13.0K	+$1.1K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.1¢	$8.5K	$9.8K	+$1.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$3.7K	$3.2K	-$194.11
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Yesavg 68¢	$12.5K	$12.1K	-$275.74	59% 65-45 (110)
RN1CTR	Noavg 54.8¢	$13.0K	$11.0K	$-2.0K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
HY hydra1248	Yesavg 67.5¢	$16.3K	$8.6K	$-7.7K	55% 12-10 (22)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$11.34	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$468.56	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.1¢	$4.0K	$5.1K	+$1.1K
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$619.12
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 65.3¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$105.04	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.3¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$38.11
└ No leg	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$66.93
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 32.4¢	$2.2K	$4.4K	+$2.2K	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
SM SmallFishGambler	Yesavg 68¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$86.47	44% 20-25 (45)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 33.2¢	$11.7K	$3.4K	+$281.23	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 33¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$42.97	49% 257-266 (523)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 32¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$207.05	52% 4818-4536 (9354)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$106.6	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 60.1¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$183.78	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Noavg 31¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$100	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 41.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$126.43	52% 374-344 (718)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 66.2¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	-$932.23	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
BB BBQChickenisthebesttt	Yesavg 65¢	$780	$792	+$12	57% 549-408 (957)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Noavg 34.6¢	$727	$646	-$13	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 39.2¢	$598.9	$576.25	-$22.65	51% 1526-1478 (3004)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$38,235.49

Value

$70.3K

PnL

+$32.1K

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$39,488.88

Value

$39.5K

PnL

+$23.68

Record

65%

1754-960 (2714)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$42,158.79

Value

$34.7K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$26,946.52

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

Both legs:

Yes$15,697.7743.2¢+$5.2K

No$11,248.7555.5¢$-2.6K

xfileCTR

Invested

$10,176.19

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

41%

473-673 (1146)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$12,234.1

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

No$8,531.3637.1¢+$1.2K

Yes$3,702.7566¢-$194.11

PLACEYOURBETS123

Yes

Invested

$12,511.75

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$275.74

Record

59%

65-45 (110)

RN1CTR

Invested

$13,023.14

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

hydra1248

Yes

Invested

$16,294.8

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$6,641.11

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$11.34

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,050.71

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$468.56

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

Yes$3,972.9945.1¢+$1.1K

No$2,077.7160.5¢-$619.12

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,863.11

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$105.04

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Both legs:

Yes$3,631.4865.3¢+$38.11

No$1,212.7731.8¢+$66.93

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$2,172.11

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

SmallFishGambler

Yes

Invested

$3,920.24

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$86.47

Record

44%

20-25 (45)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$11,671.3

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$281.23

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$2,836.1

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$42.97

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$2,650.3

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$207.05

Record

52%

4818-4536 (9354)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$2,686.32

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$106.6

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$2,037.56

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$183.78

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$1,240

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$1,379.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$126.43

Record

52%

374-344 (718)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$2,151.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$932.23

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

BBQChickenisthebesttt

Yes

Invested

$780

Value

$792

PnL

+$12

Record

57%

549-408 (957)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Invested

$727

Value

$646

PnL

-$13

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$598.9

Value

$576.25

PnL

-$22.65

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 36 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.