SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5

17 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Over (52%) · Over at 57¢ · $104K held · ended Nov 1

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 52%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$104.0K

Combined PnL

$11.4K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 57.5¢

-19% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 33 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over17 traders

Total Value$66.2K

Total Shares82,222

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Under16 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares71,538

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Over — 52%Under — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpOver 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 52% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 32

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 84¢	$38.6K	$37.2K	$-1.1K	90% 61-7 (68)
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 54¢	$13.5K	$20.0K	+$6.9K	51% 220-214 (434)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 30.7¢	$9.4K	$12.1K	+$2.7K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$7.2K	$7.8K	+$594.18	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$36.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.9¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$557.88
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$4.3K	$6.3K	+$2.0K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.3¢	$1.7K	$3.7K	+$2.0K
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.6¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$39.28
NooseracCTR	Underavg 16¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$500	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 18.9¢	$1.1K	$2.3K	+$1.2K	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
US user921123CTR	Underavg 16¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$1.8K	59% 986-676 (1662)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Overavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$338.21	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	-$10.78	65% 1758-962 (2720)
MR MrBently	Overavg 62.1¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$465.22	53% 551-493 (1044)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$388.64	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 54¢	$604.97	$896.25	-$16.8	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 62.2¢	$578.55	$703.03	+$137.65	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.2¢	$409.76	$503.9	+$107.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.9¢	$168.79	$199.12	+$30.34
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 46¢	$303.94	$607.88	+$303.94	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.2K	$512.6	-$722.84	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.0K	$488.44	-$548.14	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 52¢	$309.4	$476	+$95.2	49% 167-175 (342)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 68.6¢	$431.46	$389.73	-$41.73	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.3¢	$206.97	$198.2	-$8.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.6¢	$224.49	$191.53	-$32.96
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 53.4¢	$245.71	$372.72	+$127.02	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$676.67	$368.41	-$308.26	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LA LaarsY	Overavg 60¢	$313.36	$310.74	-$2.61	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
HY hydra1248	Overavg 55.3¢	$201.22	$294.53	+$93.31	57% 13-10 (23)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$333.09	$285.78	-$47.31	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$135.89	$205.6	+$69.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$197.2	$80.18	-$117.02
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 48.4¢	$130.06	$165.85	+$35.79	48% 8966-9597 (18563)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$38,550.7

Value

$37.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

90%

61-7 (68)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$13,496.57

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$9,406.33

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,181.02

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$594.18

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Over$4,223.7958¢+$36.3

Under$2,957.2334.9¢+$557.88

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,323.72

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

Under$1,712.2919.3¢+$2.0K

Over$2,611.4357.6¢+$39.28

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$500

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,074.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

user921123CTR

Under

Invested

$1,673.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

986-676 (1662)

JAMJAMJAM4

Over

Invested

$1,178.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$338.21

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$1,142.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$10.78

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$1,055.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$465.22

Record

53%

551-493 (1044)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$1,376.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$388.64

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$604.97

Value

$896.25

PnL

-$16.8

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$578.55

Value

$703.03

PnL

+$137.65

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

Both legs:

Over$409.7662.2¢+$107.32

Under$168.7919.9¢+$30.34

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$303.94

Value

$607.88

PnL

+$303.94

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,235.44

Value

$512.6

PnL

-$722.84

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$1,035.5

Value

$488.44

PnL

-$548.14

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$309.4

Value

$476

PnL

+$95.2

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$431.46

Value

$389.73

PnL

-$41.73

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$206.9743.3¢-$8.77

Over$224.4968.6¢-$32.96

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$245.71

Value

$372.72

PnL

+$127.02

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$676.67

Value

$368.41

PnL

-$308.26

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$313.36

Value

$310.74

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

hydra1248

Over

Invested

$201.22

Value

$294.53

PnL

+$93.31

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$333.09

Value

$285.78

PnL

-$47.31

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Over$135.8952.9¢+$69.71

Under$197.246.7¢-$117.02

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$130.06

Value

$165.85

PnL

+$35.79

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 33 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpOver 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 52% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 32

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.