Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 38¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$472.21

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 37.5¢

-42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,365

Combined PnL+$64.71

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,159

Combined PnL-$536.92

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$64.82	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
RN1CTR	Overavg 61.8¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$415.44	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 75¢	$686.71	$694.45	+$26.05	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$431.88	$519.68	+$87.81	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.7¢	$256.25	$373.28	+$117.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.8¢	$175.63	$146.4	-$29.23
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 64.8¢	$494.28	$340.81	-$153.47	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 68.2¢	$278.47	$243.39	-$35.08	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.2¢	$222.72	$181.31	-$41.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$55.75	$62.08	+$6.34
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 27¢	$25.38	$37.6	-$1.41	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$9.21	$14.04	+$4.83	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 24.4¢	$11.28	$10.65	-$0.64	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 80¢	$10	$9.69	-$0.31	67% 23462-11817 (35279)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.66	$5.56	+$1.9	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.08	$4.5	+$1.42	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 40¢	$1.04	$1.08	+$0.04	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,299.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$64.82

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,610.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$415.44

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$686.71

Value

$694.45

PnL

+$26.05

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$431.88

Value

$519.68

PnL

+$87.81

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Under$256.2536.7¢+$117.03

Over$175.6355.8¢-$29.23

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$494.28

Value

$340.81

PnL

-$153.47

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$278.47

Value

$243.39

PnL

-$35.08

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Both legs:

Over$222.7268.2¢-$41.41

Under$55.7540¢+$6.34

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$25.38

Value

$37.6

PnL

-$1.41

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.21

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$4.83

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$11.28

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.64

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$0.31

Record

67%

23462-11817 (35279)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$3.66

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$1.9

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.08

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.42

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.