Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Under (61%) · Under at 78¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 2

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 61%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.8K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 77.5¢

+49% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares38,181

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,805

Combined PnL-$643.25

Under — 61%Over — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 54.7¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$112.61	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
LI Limousin	Underavg 48.3¢	$5.6K	$8.6K	+$3.0K	53% 344-310 (654)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 56.9¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	-$163.8	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.9¢	$3.3K	$4.4K	+$1.1K
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.8¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	$-1.3K
VE Venusian	Underavg 54.1¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.2K	51% 317-303 (620)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$32.48	72% 6936-2746 (9682)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$32.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$781.89	$781.89	-$0
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$768.97	53% 337-294 (631)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 56.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$52.17	46% 7291-8601 (15892)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.23	50% 25018-24739 (49757)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$185.33	47% 13102-14675 (27777)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$549.46	$912.48	+$357.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$921.69	$458.22	-$542.73
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$19.88	80% 5130-1270 (6400)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$597.84	54% 58173-50394 (108567)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 64.3¢	$704.2	$826.8	+$122.6	49% 13483-14184 (27667)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 44.7¢	$743.54	$715.22	-$28.32	46% 9230-10953 (20183)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR	Overavg 54¢	$539.99	$569.99	+$30	68% 1470-702 (2172)
CA Cannae	Underavg 44.9¢	$501.95	$480.29	-$21.66	53% 16271-14442 (30713)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 54.9¢	$429.1	$404.46	-$24.64	45% 13007-15781 (28788)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50.3¢	$357.05	$382.97	+$25.92	50% 34723-34187 (68910)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$332.22	$358.56	+$26.34	61% 13858-8762 (22620)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.2¢	$222.86	$271	+$48.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.1¢	$109.36	$87.56	-$21.8
fyrsken	Underavg 43¢	$215	$215	+$0	48% 301-323 (624)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 43¢	$171.99	$171.99	-$0	51% 1598-1540 (3138)
noosh3	Underavg 78¢	$175	$171.63	-$3.37	52% 291-266 (557)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Overavg 57¢	$143.67	$143.22	+$0.75	48% 5504-5966 (11470)
HRTrading	Underavg 46¢	$107.56	$101.14	-$6.5	52% 6399-5797 (12196)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$60.15	$59.34	-$0.81	50% 11460-11295 (22755)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$51	$52.5	+$1.5	47% 10069-11208 (21277)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$9,415.68

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$112.61

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$5,622.78

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

53%

344-310 (654)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,389.06

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$163.8

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

Both legs:

Under$3,252.5556.9¢+$1.1K

Over$3,136.5139.8¢$-1.3K

Venusian

Under

Invested

$2,970.3

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

317-303 (620)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,600.77

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$32.48

Record

72%

6936-2746 (9682)

Both legs:

Over$1,818.8856¢+$32.48

Under$781.8943¢-$0

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,401.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$768.97

Record

53%

337-294 (631)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,788.45

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$52.17

Record

46%

7291-8601 (15892)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,486.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

25018-24739 (49757)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,972.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$185.33

Record

47%

13102-14675 (27777)

Both legs:

Under$549.4646.1¢+$357.4

Over$921.6947.3¢-$542.73

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$1,272.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$19.88

Record

80%

5130-1270 (6400)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,749.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$597.84

Record

54%

58173-50394 (108567)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$704.2

Value

$826.8

PnL

+$122.6

Record

49%

13483-14184 (27667)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$743.54

Value

$715.22

PnL

-$28.32

Record

46%

9230-10953 (20183)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR

Over

Invested

$539.99

Value

$569.99

PnL

+$30

Record

68%

1470-702 (2172)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$501.95

Value

$480.29

PnL

-$21.66

Record

53%

16271-14442 (30713)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$429.1

Value

$404.46

PnL

-$24.64

Record

45%

13007-15781 (28788)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$357.05

Value

$382.97

PnL

+$25.92

Record

50%

34723-34187 (68910)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Under

Invested

$332.22

Value

$358.56

PnL

+$26.34

Record

61%

13858-8762 (22620)

Both legs:

Under$222.8657.2¢+$48.14

Over$109.3638.1¢-$21.8

fyrsken

Under

Invested

$215

Value

$215

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

301-323 (624)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$171.99

Value

$171.99

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1598-1540 (3138)

noosh3

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$171.63

PnL

-$3.37

Record

52%

291-266 (557)

ferdinand2CTR

Over

Invested

$143.67

Value

$143.22

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

5504-5966 (11470)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$107.56

Value

$101.14

PnL

-$6.5

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.15

Value

$59.34

PnL

-$0.81

Record

50%

11460-11295 (22755)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

10069-11208 (21277)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.