Consensus PnL -$494K · win rate 48% (775–854, n=1629) · was PM monthly #508 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-493.6K
Record
775W / 854L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1629 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1876
Source
PM monthly #508
Trades
828
Markets
1,702
Volume
$17.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $15K · now 47¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
Specialties
1,000 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+28 pts
side won 80% of 806 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+26 pts
side won 76% of 94 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +27%
- Other Sports
+26 pts
side won 78% of 64 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 57% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 71% of 338)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 86% of 517)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 93% of 73)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.