Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 32% (15830–33045, n=48875) · was PM monthly #983 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.5K
Record
15830W / 33045L
Win Rate
32.0%
of 48875 settled
Batting Avg
34.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2192
Source
PM monthly #983
Trades
457
Markets
54,587
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETUp $97 · now 64¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (61% of 35)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETDown $69 · now 97¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (63% of 17)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETUp $10 · now 3¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Down)
Specialties
8,005 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+47 pts
side won 100% of 8005 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 84% of 111)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 100% of 2380)
- 50–70¢: 64%(won 100% of 5159)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 355)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.