Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
43
Up 81%
1 arb excluded
$93.6K
$25.0K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 43 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Upavg 65¢ | $18.8K | $24.5K | +$7.6K | 53% 456-407 (863) |
31 3123123121313 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $9.4K | $12.2K | +$3.8K | 56% 684-544 (1228) |
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $6.0K | $8.0K | +$2.7K | 53% 3486-3070 (6556) |
RL RLWG | Upavg 56.1¢ | $4.2K | $7.1K | +$3.0K | 50% 7972-8009 (15981) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $5.9K | $4.5K | $-1.3K | 78% 193-56 (249) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.9¢ | $3.3K | — | $-3.3K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.8¢ | $2.6K | $4.5K | +$2.0K | |
 Bossgirl | Upavg 60.2¢ | $2.8K | $4.4K | +$1.6K | 54% 4651-3951 (8602) |
AR arbfinder2026 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$1.4K | 55% 5316-4296 (9612) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 58.5¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$373.33 | 64% 4309-2376 (6685) |
HE hello.67 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $2.7K | $4.3K | +$1.6K | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e | Upavg 64.9¢ | $3.0K | $4.0K | +$1.3K | 50% 643-649 (1292) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$8.12 | 56% 14907-11713 (26620) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Upavg 61.6¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$782.99 | 58% 1353-975 (2328) |
AD adururu | Upavg 55.9¢ | $1.9K | $3.5K | +$1.5K | 53% 388-341 (729) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$217.27 | 68% 1702-798 (2500) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.14 | 93% 24266-1810 (26076) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 58.9¢ | $1.4K | $2.1K | +$814.06 | 53% 2035-1832 (3867) |
JO JocJo | Upavg 59.1¢ | $737.45 | $1.0K | +$364.39 | 51% 956-908 (1864) |
BE berlinskies | Upavg 53.6¢ | $666.25 | $1.2K | +$564.74 | 58% 5891-4317 (10208) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR | Downavg 40.4¢ | $606.4 | — | -$606.4 | 73% 95064-35693 (130757) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 31.5¢ | $448.86 | — | -$448.86 | 57% 71706-54610 (126316) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 90.7¢ | $523.67 | $431.41 | -$92.26 | 67% 99929-48304 (148233) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $265.21 | $365.66 | +$100.45 | 58% 61065-44595 (105660) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 70.2¢ | $180.3 | $256.67 | +$76.37 | 74% 103028-36547 (139575) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 37.7¢ | $1.4K | — | -$707.61 | 54% 14575-12419 (26994) |
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e | Upavg 54.8¢ | $173.45 | $139.16 | +$43.17 | 54% 1629-1374 (3003) |
Invested
$18,816.01
Value
$24.5K
PnL
+$7.6K
Record
53%
456-407 (863)
Invested
$9,442.81
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
56%
684-544 (1228)
Invested
$6,032.4
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
53%
3486-3070 (6556)
Invested
$4,166.55
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
50%
7972-8009 (15981)
Invested
$5,873.37
Value
$4.5K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
78%
193-56 (249)
Both legs:
BossgirlInvested
$2,841.33
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
54%
4651-3951 (8602)
Invested
$3,857.91
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
55%
5316-4296 (9612)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,645
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$373.33
Record
64%
4309-2376 (6685)
Invested
$2,714.88
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$3,028
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
50%
643-649 (1292)
Invested
$2,319.01
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$8.12
Record
56%
14907-11713 (26620)
Invested
$1,722.1
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$782.99
Record
58%
1353-975 (2328)
Invested
$1,942.89
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
53%
388-341 (729)
Invested
$1,311.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$217.27
Record
68%
1702-798 (2500)
Invested
$1,475.76
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.14
Record
93%
24266-1810 (26076)
Invested
$1,420.85
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$814.06
Record
53%
2035-1832 (3867)
Invested
$737.45
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$364.39
Record
51%
956-908 (1864)
Invested
$666.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$564.74
Record
58%
5891-4317 (10208)
Invested
$606.4
Value
—
PnL
-$606.4
Record
73%
95064-35693 (130757)
Invested
$448.86
Value
—
PnL
-$448.86
Record
57%
71706-54610 (126316)
Invested
$523.67
Value
$431.41
PnL
-$92.26
Record
67%
99929-48304 (148233)
Invested
$265.21
Value
$365.66
PnL
+$100.45
Record
58%
61065-44595 (105660)
BoneOhioInvested
$180.3
Value
$256.67
PnL
+$76.37
Record
74%
103028-36547 (139575)
Invested
$1,414.81
Value
—
PnL
-$707.61
Record
54%
14575-12419 (26994)
Invested
$173.45
Value
$139.16
PnL
+$43.17
Record
54%
1629-1374 (3003)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
oxe78sh4w98
Up — $24.5K
3123123121313
Up — $12.2K
0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05
Up — $8.0K
RLWG
Up — $7.1K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bossgirl
Up — $4.4K
arbfinder2026
Up — $3.9K
Atomforge
Up — $3.0K
hello.67
Up — $4.3K
0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e
Up — $4.0K