Consensus PnL $412K · win rate 62% (43–26, n=69) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$411.6K
Record
43W / 26L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 69 settled
Batting Avg
62.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1086
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
949
Markets
119
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $19K · now 86¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $18K · now 87¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
95 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 71¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 78% of 46 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 69% of 16 at an average 71¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 18% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 44% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 67% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 88% of 66)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.