Iran leadership change by December 31?

40 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 87¢ · $474K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$473.5K

Combined PnL

$18.1K

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 86.5¢

+5% since entry · 40 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

40 of 54 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No40 traders

Total Value$458.3K

Total Shares526,866

Combined PnL+$20.7K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares91,382

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 61% · 23

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 27

Aligned

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 74% · 38

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stupid22	Noavg 85.9¢	$183.5K	$184.4K	+$903.91	94% 411-26 (437)
TH thoodr	Noavg 88.3¢	$37.8K	$37.2K	-$749.7	96% 631-24 (655)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 78.5¢	$28.8K	$32.3K	+$3.2K	89% 4652-547 (5199)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 85.3¢	$27.9K	$27.7K	+$350.61	87% 179-26 (205)
GoriIIa	Noavg 85.4¢	$24.1K	$24.5K	+$315.02	73% 229-85 (314)
CO cocos228	Noavg 65.6¢	$15.0K	$19.9K	+$4.8K	72% 68-27 (95)
LL Llalalala	Noavg 84.2¢	$17.7K	$18.2K	+$485.97	63% 71-42 (113)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 84¢	$16.8K	$17.4K	+$500	80% 437-110 (547)
FO Folletin	Noavg 84.9¢	$10.2K	$10.4K	+$247.6	69% 423-188 (611)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 47.3¢	$5.1K	$9.3K	+$4.2K	53% 915-808 (1723)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 86¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$100	68% 124-59 (183)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 79.6¢	$7.5K	$8.2K	+$645.02	87% 95-14 (109)
Udonsan	Noavg 86¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$44.33	79% 247-66 (313)
classified	Noavg 71.2¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$124.46	58% 843-614 (1457)
Moond	Noavg 73.5¢	$6.1K	$7.2K	+$1.1K	69% 1137-513 (1650)
mombil	Noavg 69.4¢	$5.3K	$6.6K	+$1.3K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
SirHarryOakes	Noavg 80¢	$6.0K	$6.5K	+$488.88	84% 215-41 (256)
DE denizz	Noavg 64.5¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$83.49	68% 597-284 (881)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$3.8K	$4.8K	+$864.3	64% 632-352 (984)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Noavg 86¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$20.55	64% 85-47 (132)
BT BTCGambler247	Noavg 63¢	$2.4K	$3.3K	+$892.99	47% 217-240 (457)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$68.79	71% 611-250 (861)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$98.46	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.9¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$17.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.3¢	$1.1K	$548.41	-$115.48
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 84.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$47.47	80% 168-42 (210)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 77.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$80	82% 1758-394 (2152)

stupid22

Invested

$183,524.79

Value

$184.4K

PnL

+$903.91

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

thoodr

Invested

$37,779.07

Value

$37.2K

PnL

-$749.7

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

nonkenny90

Invested

$28,843.45

Value

$32.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$27,863.81

Value

$27.7K

PnL

+$350.61

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

GoriIIa

Invested

$24,089.04

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$315.02

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

cocos228

Invested

$14,977.93

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

Llalalala

Invested

$17,727.54

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$485.97

Record

63%

71-42 (113)

Kevindoto

Invested

$16,799.99

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$500

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Folletin

Invested

$10,184.58

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$247.6

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$5,105.63

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$8,600

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$100

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

skibabiba

Invested

$7,485.97

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$645.02

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

Udonsan

Invested

$7,624.25

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$44.33

Record

79%

247-66 (313)

classified

Invested

$7,093.81

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$124.46

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

Moond

Invested

$6,063.77

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

1137-513 (1650)

mombil

Invested

$5,303.76

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

SirHarryOakes

Invested

$6,014

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$488.88

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

denizz

Invested

$4,758.71

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$83.49

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,802.91

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$864.3

Record

64%

632-352 (984)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Invested

$3,533.13

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$20.55

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

BTCGambler247

Invested

$2,393.97

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$892.99

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,703.37

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$68.79

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$2,539.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$98.46

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$1,629.7774.9¢+$17.02

Yes$1,106.9528.3¢-$115.48

TerreMoto

Invested

$1,908.95

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$47.47

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$1,660

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$80

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 87%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

40 of 54 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 61% · 23

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 27

Aligned

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 74% · 38

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.