Consensus PnL $635K · win rate 98% (11990–295, n=12285) · PM monthly #262 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$635.2K
Record
11990W / 295L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 12285 settled
Batting Avg
88.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#92
Source
PM monthly #262
Record (90 d)
3228/3289 · 98%
Trades
12,623
Markets
13,643
Volume
$390.0M
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Specialties
11,110 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 96¢- Entertainment
+12 pts
side won 67% of 45 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 93% of 15 at an average 99¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 19% of 221)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 50% of 203)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 57% of 165)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 99% of 10521)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.