Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 81% (251–57, n=308) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.1K
Record
251W / 57L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 308 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#410
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
77
Markets
355
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 23 on the consensus side (91%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $28K · now 96¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $28K · now 93¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in November?No $11K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3?Yes $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?No $9.4K · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes $7.4K · now 90¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No $6.8K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
312 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 88¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Marioy's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 60% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 53% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 93%(won 92% of 289)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.