Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $22K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$22.0K
-$70.18
92.9¢ → 91.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6K | $18.5K | -$98 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 92¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$12.5 | 85% 605-108 (713) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $598.55 | $646.69 | +$48.13 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $287.67 | $279.15 | -$8.52 | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $308.08 | $262.2 | -$24.02 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.81 | $25.54 | -$0.27 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
Invested
$18,597.98
Value
$18.5K
PnL
-$98
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$2,300
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$12.5
Record
85%
605-108 (713)
Invested
$598.55
Value
$646.69
PnL
+$48.13
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
justdanceCTRInvested
$287.67
Value
$279.15
PnL
-$8.52
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
Invested
$308.08
Value
$262.2
PnL
-$24.02
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$25.54
PnL
-$0.27
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.