Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 95¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$13.0K
$253.72
90.3¢ → 95.3¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $9.4K | $9.5K | +$80.33 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
EA easypredict | Yesavg 74¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$468.54 | 56% 270-208 (478) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 92.1¢ | $855.07 | $834.46 | -$20.61 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 15.9¢ | $732.25 | $457.24 | -$275.01 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $22.88 | $22.88 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 7.3¢ | $9.77 | $10.23 | +$0.47 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$9,379.68
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$80.33
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$1,676.48
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$468.54
Record
56%
270-208 (478)
Invested
$855.07
Value
$834.46
PnL
-$20.61
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$732.25
Value
$457.24
PnL
-$275.01
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$22.88
Value
$22.88
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.47
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.