Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 90¢ · $62K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$61.5K

Combined PnL

$25.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 90.5¢

+103% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$61.1K

Total Shares65,865

Combined PnL+$28.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$444.07

Total Shares4,775

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jacemaester	Yesavg 27¢	$1.0K	$21.1K	+$15.8K	— 2-2 (4)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 41.4¢	$21.6K	$21.0K	+$6.7K	69% 404-180 (584)
alphaalii	Yesavg 60.5¢	$5.6K	$8.3K	+$2.7K	— 12-4 (16)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 67.3¢	$3.2K	$7.4K	+$3.5K	81% 250-58 (308)
18 1881aa	Yesavg 86.1¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$11.86	71% 380-154 (534)
TR tradexplorerCTR	Noavg 75¢	$2.1K	$261.52	$-1.8K	60% 291-194 (485)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Noavg 77¢	$1.2K	$139.5	$-1.0K	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
DragontreeCTR	Noavg 77¢	$264.21	$31.9	-$232.31	58% 1250-888 (2138)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$97	$11.16	-$85.84	72% 1535-585 (2120)

jacemaester

Yes

Invested

$1,005.03

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$15.8K

Record

—

2-2 (4)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$21,560.87

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

alphaalii

Yes

Invested

$5,586.71

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

—

12-4 (16)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$3,183.57

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

1881aa

Yes

Invested

$3,312.33

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$11.86

Record

71%

380-154 (534)

tradexplorerCTR

Invested

$2,108.99

Value

$261.52

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

60%

291-194 (485)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Invested

$1,155

Value

$139.5

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

DragontreeCTR

Invested

$264.21

Value

$31.9

PnL

-$232.31

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$97

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$85.84

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.