Consensus PnL -$113K · win rate 61% (625–400, n=1025) · was PM monthly #831 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-112.7K
Record
625W / 400L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1025 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1113
Source
PM monthly #831
Trades
400
Markets
1,109
Volume
$3.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $1.4K · now 70¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (Adolfo Vallejo)
Specialties
881 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 65¢- College Football
+27 pts
side won 88% of 41 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +20%
- Tennis
+12 pts
side won 77% of 427 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +5%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 77% of 115 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 67% of 42 at an average 71¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 50% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 48% of 148)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 71% of 346)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 90% of 361)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.