Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 38% (5–8, n=13) · was PM monthly #417 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.9K
Record
5W / 8L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
84.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1567
Source
PM monthly #417
Record (90 d)
5/12 · 42%
Trades
223
Markets
14
Volume
$404.7K
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming $48K · now 100¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (59% of 112)
- Lightning vs. JetsJets $507 · now 87¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (81% of 30)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 42% at an average entry of 38¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where NOO-Yes's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 67% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.