Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Lightning (62%). 13 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lightning vs. Jets

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (57%) · Jets at 39¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 8

Lightning62¢Jets38¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 57%

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

-$240.73

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 38.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 62%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning62%

Jets39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets13 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares52,452

Combined PnL-$401.35

Lightning10 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares16,829

Combined PnL+$160.62

Jets — 57%Lightning — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Jetsavg 39.1¢	$7.8K	$7.7K	-$124.43	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jetsavg 39.8¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$195.4	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Jetsavg 39¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$52.41	48% 493-536 (1029)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Lightningavg 57.1¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$125.24	48% 520-559 (1079)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lightningavg 60¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$71.3	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
Vladooos	Lightningavg 61.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$51	69% 143-63 (206)
nigiri99CTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$19.72	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
OJ ojg	Lightningavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.12	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
38 38791873984189	Lightningavg 60.4¢	$863.29	$765.46	-$2.67	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Jetsavg 39¢	$424.8	$419.35	-$5.45	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$270.63	$273.98	+$3.35	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
dips.	Lightningavg 61¢	$252.54	$254.61	+$2.07	46% 12125-14052 (26177)
WE westing.v1CTR	Jetsavg 42.4¢	$212.75	$208.01	-$4.74	49% 61-63 (124)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Lightningavg 61¢	$163.48	$164.82	+$1.34	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jetsavg 41¢	$164	$162	-$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Jetsavg 39.1¢	$99.72	$100.78	+$1.06	53% 14337-12645 (26982)
PA Pan9X	Lightningavg 58.5¢	$121.1	$71.5	+$3.5	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Lightningavg 61¢	$50.02	$50.43	+$0.41	53% 3775-3371 (7146)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Lightningavg 61¢	$37.42	$37.73	+$0.31	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jetsavg 39.4¢	$36.31	$35.43	-$0.87	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100	Jetsavg 43.2¢	$7.74	$7.25	-$0.49	55% 425-353 (778)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jetsavg 41¢	$4.1	$3.85	-$0.25	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Jetsavg 39¢	$1.28	$1.26	-$0.02	46% 30579-35678 (66257)

0xheavy888CTR

Jets

Invested

$7,824.14

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$124.43

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jets

Invested

$5,970.4

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$195.4

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Jets

Invested

$4,087.59

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$52.41

Record

48%

493-536 (1029)

Multicoloured-Serf

Lightning

Invested

$2,938.26

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$125.24

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

HomeRunHazard

Lightning

Invested

$2,881.62

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$71.3

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Vladooos

Lightning

Invested

$1,836

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$51

Record

69%

143-63 (206)

nigiri99CTR

Jets

Invested

$1,656.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$19.72

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

ojg

Lightning

Invested

$1,235

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.12

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

38791873984189

Lightning

Invested

$863.29

Value

$765.46

PnL

-$2.67

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

SnakeBallCTR

Jets

Invested

$424.8

Value

$419.35

PnL

-$5.45

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jets

Invested

$270.63

Value

$273.98

PnL

+$3.35

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

dips.

Lightning

Invested

$252.54

Value

$254.61

PnL

+$2.07

Record

46%

12125-14052 (26177)

westing.v1CTR

Jets

Invested

$212.75

Value

$208.01

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Lightning

Invested

$163.48

Value

$164.82

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jets

Invested

$164

Value

$162

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

BoomLaLaCTR

Jets

Invested

$99.72

Value

$100.78

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

Pan9X

Lightning

Invested

$121.1

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Lightning

Invested

$50.02

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

3775-3371 (7146)

Flaznorp<$100

Lightning

Invested

$37.42

Value

$37.73

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$36.31

Value

$35.43

PnL

-$0.87

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$7.74

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$0.49

Record

55%

425-353 (778)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 62%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.