LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner

69 of 111 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (62%) · Bilibili Gaming at 95¢ · $1.2M held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming95¢T15¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

111

Bilibili Gaming 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2M

Combined PnL

$26.9K

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 94.5¢

+78% since entry · 69 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

69 of 111 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed42 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming95%

T16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming69 traders

Total Value$898.4K

Total Shares1,240,712

Combined PnL+$158.6K

T142 traders

Total Value$259.0K

Total Shares757,951

Combined PnL$-131.6K

Bilibili Gaming — 62%T1 — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
US Username2133	Bilibili Gamingavg 56.4¢	$86.9K	$85.1K	+$4.9K	60% 114-75 (189)
LI LinkE5	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.9¢	$45.0K	$58.9K	+$13.8K	47% 770-855 (1625)
DamwonChampions2026	Bilibili Gamingavg 55.7¢	$41.8K	$49.9K	+$8.1K	53% 2411-2138 (4549)
minji	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.2¢	$43.7K	$49.9K	+$6.2K	52% 2087-1917 (4004)
YO yong32	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.8¢	$49.5K	$49.1K	+$7.5K	69% 62-28 (90)
NO NOO-Yes	Bilibili Gamingavg 36.4¢	$17.4K	$44.7K	+$27.3K	— 5-9 (14)
veriflyCTR	T1avg 48.2¢	$25.2K	$42.5K	+$17.3K	35% 160-291 (451)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Bilibili Gamingavg 47¢	$20.9K	$41.3K	+$20.4K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
dodsterbot	Bilibili Gamingavg 50¢	$37.8K	$36.7K	$-1.1K	46% 672-791 (1463)
BR brobrobrobrobro	Bilibili Gamingavg 52.3¢	$34.5K	$35.7K	+$1.2K	62% 264-161 (425)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502	Bilibili Gamingavg 64¢	$20.9K	$32.0K	+$18.9K	35% 245-447 (692)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	T1avg 55.4¢	$33.1K	$31.1K	$-2.0K	58% 2201-1607 (3808)
WH white-rabbit	Bilibili Gamingavg 44.3¢	$17.9K	$28.7K	+$10.8K	52% 1949-1789 (3738)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	T1avg 52.3¢	$47.7K	$27.9K	$-7.9K	51% 1025-997 (2022)
CUTJALENHURTS	Bilibili Gamingavg 47.7¢	$19.1K	$26.6K	+$7.5K	51% 6917-6562 (13479)
JA Ja888	Bilibili Gamingavg 62.3¢	$27.7K	$25.1K	+$11.4K	69% 68-30 (98)
vtcchampion52ARB<$100	T1avg 47.1¢	$57.2K	$24.8K	$-32.4K	49% 1304-1349 (2653)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 47.1¢	$54.4K	$17.3K	$-37.0K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 32.2¢	$2.8K	$7.5K	+$4.7K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bilibili Gamingavg 66.1¢	$31.3K	$24.7K	$-6.6K	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
BL black-rabbit	Bilibili Gamingavg 42.8¢	$10.6K	$23.3K	+$14.0K	53% 2240-1999 (4239)
RNGUzi	Bilibili Gamingavg 44.7¢	$14.7K	$21.2K	+$6.5K	51% 240-235 (475)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	T1avg 50.8¢	$31.5K	$20.5K	+$2.2K	54% 2613-2245 (4858)
PN pnhct	Bilibili Gamingavg 59.4¢	$67.4K	$19.1K	-$232.98	53% 585-520 (1105)
GA gaclfz	Bilibili Gamingavg 74.4¢	$15.4K	$19.0K	+$3.6K	74% 1375-488 (1863)
zb8CTR	T1avg 49.5¢	$122.5K	$16.1K	$-106.4K	53% 668-587 (1255)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.6¢	$8.8K	$15.0K	+$6.1K	49% 567-579 (1146)

Username2133

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$86,857.23

Value

$85.1K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

60%

114-75 (189)

LinkE5

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$45,042.55

Value

$58.9K

PnL

+$13.8K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

DamwonChampions2026

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$41,787.56

Value

$49.9K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

53%

2411-2138 (4549)

minji

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$43,673.25

Value

$49.9K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

52%

2087-1917 (4004)

yong32

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$49,515.49

Value

$49.1K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

69%

62-28 (90)

NOO-Yes

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$17,406.27

Value

$44.7K

PnL

+$27.3K

Record

—

5-9 (14)

veriflyCTR

Invested

$25,160.76

Value

$42.5K

PnL

+$17.3K

Record

35%

160-291 (451)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$20,888.68

Value

$41.3K

PnL

+$20.4K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

dodsterbot

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$37,788

Value

$36.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

672-791 (1463)

brobrobrobrobro

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$34,529.11

Value

$35.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

62%

264-161 (425)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$20,907.49

Value

$32.0K

PnL

+$18.9K

Record

35%

245-447 (692)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

Invested

$33,094.23

Value

$31.1K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

58%

2201-1607 (3808)

white-rabbit

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$17,946.85

Value

$28.7K

PnL

+$10.8K

Record

52%

1949-1789 (3738)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Invested

$47,704.87

Value

$27.9K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$19,099.99

Value

$26.6K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

51%

6917-6562 (13479)

Ja888

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$27,725.35

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$11.4K

Record

69%

68-30 (98)

vtcchampion52ARB<$100

Invested

$57,196.37

Value

$24.8K

PnL

$-32.4K

Record

49%

1304-1349 (2653)

Both legs:

T1$54,362.2947.1¢$-37.0K

Bilibili Gaming$2,834.0832.2¢+$4.7K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$31,274.9

Value

$24.7K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

black-rabbit

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,601.37

Value

$23.3K

PnL

+$14.0K

Record

53%

2240-1999 (4239)

RNGUzi

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$14,724.41

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

51%

240-235 (475)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Invested

$31,459.99

Value

$20.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

2613-2245 (4858)

pnhct

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$67,390.83

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$232.98

Record

53%

585-520 (1105)

gaclfz

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$15,384.57

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

74%

1375-488 (1863)

zb8CTR

Invested

$122,527.56

Value

$16.1K

PnL

$-106.4K

Record

53%

668-587 (1255)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,827.25

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

49%

567-579 (1146)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

69 of 111 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed42 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.