Consensus PnL -$9.6K · win rate 59% (129–90, n=219) · was PM monthly #984 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-9.6K
Record
129W / 90L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 219 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1241
Source
PM monthly #984
Trades
1,207
Markets
440
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes $36K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes $9.6K · now 95¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes $3.5K · now 94¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes $468 · now 12¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
255 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 55¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Nomorepredict's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NBA — held side won 52% of 122 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 8% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 38% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 57% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 88% of 100)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.