Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.4K
-$803.08
78.1¢ → 88.3¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
4872h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 timebrotime | Noavg 94.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$157.86 | 67% 893-435 (1328) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 50.8¢ | $684.44 | $1.2K | +$505.38 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 NomorepredictCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $370 | $468 | $-1.2K | 53% 179-159 (338) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Noavg 80.7¢ | $251.91 | $275.81 | +$23.59 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $93.14 | $153.4 | +$60.26 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $85.57 | $83 | -$2.57 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $47.89 | $40.06 | +$0.47 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
timebrotimeInvested
$2,369.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$157.86
Record
67%
893-435 (1328)
XieGuangKunInvested
$684.44
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$505.38
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
NomorepredictCTRInvested
$370
Value
$468
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
53%
179-159 (338)
Invested
$251.91
Value
$275.81
PnL
+$23.59
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
Invested
$93.14
Value
$153.4
PnL
+$60.26
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$85.57
Value
$83
PnL
-$2.57
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$47.89
Value
$40.06
PnL
+$0.47
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.