Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 95¢ · $65K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 45%
$65.1K
$25.4K
46.7¢ → 94.6¢
+103% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE SeniorLaghetto | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $31.7K | $33.0K | +$14.8K | 69% 404-180 (584) |
 alphaalii | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $8.7K | $13.1K | +$4.4K | — 12-4 (16) |
JA jacemaester | Yesavg 25¢ | $56.5 | $12.9K | +$9.1K | — 2-2 (4) |
 Nomorepredict | Yesavg 57.9¢ | $273.65 | $3.5K | +$2.5K | 53% 179-159 (338) |
 -Yang- | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.9K | +$865.4 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
TR tradexplorerCTR | Noavg 67.6¢ | $3.4K | $316.25 | $-3.1K | 60% 291-194 (485) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Noavg 73¢ | $2.9K | $252 | $-2.7K | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 23¢ | $230 | $63 | -$172.5 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Noavg 71.7¢ | $230.84 | $20.29 | -$212.32 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
TT tttt123CTR | Noavg 80.8¢ | $162.84 | $12.6 | -$150.24 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.3¢ | $5.33 | $0.57 | -$4.77 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
Invested
$31,654.86
Value
$33.0K
PnL
+$14.8K
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
alphaaliiInvested
$8,672.88
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$4.4K
Record
—
12-4 (16)
Invested
$56.5
Value
$12.9K
PnL
+$9.1K
Record
—
2-2 (4)
NomorepredictInvested
$273.65
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
53%
179-159 (338)
-Yang-Invested
$1,065.1
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$865.4
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Invested
$3,383.22
Value
$316.25
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$2,920
Value
$252
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$230
Value
$63
PnL
-$172.5
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$230.84
Value
$20.29
PnL
-$212.32
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$162.84
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$150.24
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$4.77
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.